Independently research Chicago WS vs Cleveland (Pro Baseball; sport: baseball), scheduled 2026-10-03T17:00:00+00:00. Phase: BLIND. Hard data cutoff: 2026-10-03T05:00:34.564Z. Us…
Independently research Chicago WS vs Cleveland (Pro Baseball; sport: baseball), scheduled 2026-10-03T17:00:00+00:00. Phase: BLIND. Hard data cutoff: 2026-10-03T05:00:34.564Z. Use only information available by that cutoff and prioritize the last 1–2 years. Do not use betting or prediction-market prices to infer true probability. No confirmed lineup payload is available. Treat all lineup claims as probable or unknown. Assess confirmed starting pitchers, pitcher workload and pitch-count trends, bullpen availability and fatigue, batting order, platoon splits, park and weather effects, defense, baserunning and opponent-adjusted recent form. Baseball has no draw: return draw exactly 0. Clearly label confirmed, probable, disputed and unknown facts. Prefer official team/league and recognized statistical sources; never invent missing information. First estimate independent regulation/official-result home/away probabilities. The monitored contracts are Chicago WS wins (KXMLBGAME-26OCT031300CWSCLE-CWS), Cleveland wins (KXMLBGAME-26OCT031300CWSCLE-CLE), but do not compare to their prices. Include counterarguments, NO BET conditions and live thesis-invalidation signals. End with exactly one <decision_json> block containing valid JSON with: as_of_utc, data_cutoff_utc, fair_probabilities {home_win,draw,away_win}, confidence, data_quality, citations [{url,publisher,retrieved_at}], uncertainty_reasons, no_bet_reasons, thesis_invalidation. The three probabilities must sum to 1. confidence and data_quality must each be JSON numbers from 0 to 1, never qualitative labels. no_bet_reasons must contain only blockers that are true now and make this assessment unusable now; use an empty array when none are active. Put conditional future triggers in thesis_invalidation instead. Every retrieved_at must be a full ISO 8601 UTC datetime. Research is advisory and must not claim an order was placed.
Who paid
0x6949…0345
Launch
Requested false
Delivery
No repository URL on this job.
No site object on this job.
Nodes
- reviewaccepted
panel
Attempt 1
Verdict: none
Seat: none
Reviews
sent · chain 1 · Oct 3, 2026, 11:18 PM
Transaction 0x5aa30bc38051eaa89c9337277ac9932d6c9624fdf47e8012f3e51d4e86088a9e